AutoDrive
March 29, 2013 Good Friday to you
A principle that drives my writings is that I write only a portion of
what I know. Some would say "write what you know."
That's not what I would say. Vonnegut and others have said that, but
that's not it. If it were, there would be no science fiction or
adventure or horror or movie critics. The first novel Robinson Crusoe
would not have been written. Vonnegut would've said, "No, Mr. Defoe. First you have to
get shipwrecked. Then you can write about it."
When I was musing the previous post (below), the
cop in the intersection was more of a key figure.
Part of what I know that I didn't write is that the hardware of the
self-driving cars currently being tested is not in a consumer
condition. The lasers (LIDAR)
used to measure distance (and motion,
direction, & velocity) would blind a traffic cop.
That's
a difference between AutoDrive and Google Drive. In my novel, Hopes and Dreams: Stuck on
AutoDrive, development of AutoDrive occurs on
company property. As a result, there were accidents and issues about
protective goggles. Google
Drive
takes employee health out of the equation (somewhat) by putting the
researchers in the vehicle instead of in front of the vehicle. And
Google Drive tries not to stay in any one area long enough to be
trouble.
Now, I'm biased. To me, self-driving cars should be developed on the
factory floor, and in parking lots, and on specially constructed
driving courses, not on public streets -- for
safety reasons. It's not
because the vehicles will crash into things. It's because of the pod on
top of the vehicles and people looking at the lasers and getting
blinded by the light.
And while I'm spelling things out, here's a little truth in
advertising. My novel is not about the self-driving car. I mean it is,
but it is much more about the learning to live happily-ever-after
relationship and romance stuff than making the self-driving car.
AutoDrive is just the vehicle that carries the story.
Music Association: Manfred Mann
- Blinded by the Light
Driving
Decisions
March 28, 2013
Every commute morning and evening, you learn more about driving. Every
time the car is turned on, it's a new experiment. It's practice. It's
repetition.
You've been to this intersection a thousand times. The traffic light is
red. A woman stands in the middle of the road. She waves you forward.
She wants you to cross the intersection.
No whistle. No police uniform. No orange reflective vest. No Slow sign. What is
the decision process?
Inventing the self-driving car is just like drawing a panda. It takes
practice. It takes repetition, whether the programming is done at a
desk or on the road, it still takes repetition. In a way, it's easy.
Let's say I'm the self-driving car. OK, you're the
self-driving car.
Who am I going to listen to? If someone outside the vehicle says, "Stop!" do I listen?
What about someone in the back seat of the car, can they get me to stop
the car? What if the Supreme's song, Stop In The Name of Love,
is played. Should I stop?
The self-driving car will have internal and external microphones.
Whether or not the car pays attention to what is said is part of the
decision-making of how the vehicle should behave.
It's about deciding what is important.
You might think -- leave decisions like those to the developers, they
know more about driving, right? But the decisions will ultimately be business decisions.
Let me go in a different direction. OK, but are you still the
self-driving car?
Corn.
Most people like it. But it's a very tempting target for birds, bugs,
and varmints.
Keeping away the birds and bugs and varmints is big business.
A
while ago, big business meeting looked at the problem. Some bright
loudmouth had to open her big mouth and comment that the problem with
pesticides is that it's surface-level. Bugs crawling up from underneath
(or rain washing
away) that's right... rain washing away the pesticides...
either way, the bugs can crawl in and set up house in our corn.
Someone else, who had been hired without any agricultural or scientific
background, asked if corn could be soaked in pesticides. Discussion
drowned out a comment that a pesticide soak, even if feasible, would
lead to pesticide contaminated food.
And that's as near as anyone can figure that a decision was made to
genetically add pesticides to seed corn.
Yes, pesticides are in the corn. It can't be washed out. It's been
there for years. Have
you had any health problems?
Genetically
Modified Organisms (GMO) are food that have been modified for improved
characteristics. Today's GMOs are created in just a matter of
months or years. Fast.
A very slow type of genetic modification has occurred for thousands of
years. Farmers collected samples of the best crops and used those seeds
for the next crop. Modern maize looks enormous compared to Native
American crops from only five hundred years ago. Nearly all food crops
(grains, fruits, vegetables) and livestock have had human assistance --
human decisions -- driving their evolution. |
A study was conducted at Monsanto, one
of the big agri-businesses, in 2000 and 2001. European studies were
also conducted, and Monsanto lost
some of its data. The pesticide added - genetically altered corn was
fed to rats. The rats had kidney and liver (the dietary detoxifying
organs) problems, as well as effects to the heart, adrenal glands,
spleen, and haematopoietic system. (Don't look at these pictures of the
rats
with great big tumors.) Study reports 1
& 2.
Why would a business add pesticides to corn? That could only be a
business decision. Based
on yields?
They weren't listening to anyone who said, "Stop."
Music Association: Diana Ross
and the Supremes - Stop In The Name Of Love
Movie Association: Night
Shift - Bill Blazejowski:
"What if you mix the mayonnaise in the can with the tuna fish? Or...
hold it! Chuck, I got it! Take live tuna fish and feed 'em
mayonnaise. Oh, this is great". [Speaking into
Dictaphone.] "Call
StarKist."
Postscript: An advantage of breakfast cereals with built-in pesticides
is longer shelf-life. The cereal box can sit on the cabinet shelf and
(potentially) any bugs will steer clear. Someone should do an
experiment on that.
Infinity + 2
Autonomous Car Parts
March 26, 2013
[Read Infinity+1 first]
The question at the end of the last post was "How do you teach a computer
program to have faith?"
A self-driving car needs to be more than the sum of its parts, but you
have to understand its parts to understand what I'm talking about.
Key hardware input components of autonomous cars (as listed on the AutoDrive
page) are lasers, radar, ultrasonic motion detectors (sonar-ish),
microphones, electronic stability control
(ESC), gyroscopes, GPS, a
traffic signal preemption radio chip, and operational sensors.
The first three items of that list are used to measure distances,
motion, direction, and velocity. A pod of these tools are found on the
top of autonomous vehicles and on or near the bumpers.
Consider lasers (or LIDAR)
at the roof level of a car and at the bumper level. What's the
difference? Picture yourself in a cool, low-to-the-ground,
pavement-hugging sports car. In traffic, you have a great view of other
car's bumpers and undercarriages. You know whose vehicles are leaking
fluids. Now imagine yourself in one of those inferiority-complex
monster trucks with clearance for the cool sports cars to drive
underneath. You are seeing over all the other vehicles. These are the
views
(the difference at least) of the bumper level and roof level lasers.
Recently a writer from Forbes, Joann
Muller,
rode along with Google Drive. She said that the Google co-drivers told
her the story of being amazed by Google Drive slowing down because of
someone they hadn't seen until the pedestrian emerged from between
two parked cars. How did Google Drive do it? By being on
the roof -- similar to the monster truck level.
Now consider the problem posed in the previous post.
The rooftop laser would see only sky. It would be measuring infinity
∞. At the bumper, the laser would still be reading road. Just
as
sometimes people must trust one sense over another, the autonomous
vehicle must choose a sensor to trust. It must have faith
in the bumper level laser over the rocketing skyward roof laser (beyond
infinity). The faith... the bet can be hedged with other information --
from a pair of gyroscopes (or LN3),
explaining the slope of the road, helping the computer program to
ignore the information of the rooftop laser.
That's how a computer program can be taught to have faith.
More problems (like this one) are explored in Hopes and Dreams: Stuck on
AutoDrive (on
sale now).
Music Associations: George
Michael - Faith & Journey - Faithfully & Drifters - Up
On The Roof
Novel Association: Hopes
and Dreams - Stuck on AutoDrive (Buy
It)
Movie Association: Life
of
Brian "There shall be a great confusion as to where things
really
are, and nobody will really know where lieth those little things wi--
with the sort of raffia work base that has an attachment. At this time,
a friend shall lose his friend's hammer and the young shall not know
where lieth the things possessed by their fathers that their fathers
put there only just the night before, about eight o'clock."
.
Infinity
+ 1
Self-Driving Challenges
March 25, 2013
You're driving along with confidence, despite being in unfamiliar
territory, figuring you can handle just about anything the road can
throw at you.
But you would never have expected the highway department to have paved
a cliff.
You start driving up the cliff.
You're thinking Minnesota doesn't have too many of these roads. Most of
them are in Duluth or Stillwater or Saint Paul or Red Wing. It's the
eastern edge of Minnesota that has the cliffs.
You're gaining altitude. Now all you see is sky.
You have to accelerate more, or you're going to stall the...
uh, plane?
Wait, that's aeronautics! This isn't driving any more; it's flying. You
still see plenty of sky, but now you also see God, who nods His Head as
if to say, “Yes,
accelerate!”
Up ahead the road looks like it gets steeper and then it abruptly
stops. Stops?!?
The highway department gave up?!? Quick decision! Either make a fast
U-turn and probably tumble sideways back down the hill the way you came
-- or --
have faith (continue on). God nods His Head as if to say, “Have faith.”
You press the accelerator to the floor and wonder if you understood
what God meant by His Nod or was it something else entirely. Maybe it
had nothing to do with you at all. Maybe He was looking past you at
something else that met His Approval.
At the top, the road continues along at a normal grade.
Everything is okay.
You pry your fingers out of the grooves you've squeezed into the
steering wheel, like Steve Martin in Planes, Trains, &
Automobiles.
It's easy to understand ice and snow as tough considerations for a
self-driving car. It's tougher to consider those times heading down a
steep road and all you see ahead is road. Or those times heading
up a cliff and all you see is sky.
How do you teach a computer program to have faith?*
Music Association: Tom Petty -
Free Falling
Movie Association: Planes, Trains, &
Automobiles
* The answer will be in the next post.
Liabilities
and the Self-Driving Car
March 22, 2013
The self-driving car will offer unprecedented freedom to travel.
Sign Here. Okay. As I was saying, the
self-driving car will off- And sign
here, here, and here.
Yes I certainly... wait what is all this? "The
instigator of vehicle operations, the person (known
as the Operator)
pressing the autonomous driving mode, assumes all responsibilities of
autonomous motion and motionlessness." Yeah,
but- "Operator
will not engage the autonomous driving mode in inclement weather
(including but not restricted to thunderstorms, blizzards, snow, rain,
hurricanes, tropical storms, sandstorms, fog, or any other situation
where visibility is reduced.) Operator will not engage
the autonomous driving mode on hazardous surfaces (including
but not restricted to unpaved surfaces (gravel, sand, soil, wood, and
other plant materials), flooded surfaces, icy or snow covered surfaces,
exposed wires, or any other potentially hazardous conditions. Vehicles
in autonomous
driving mode will be disengaged when conditions change to those
mentioned above." Well that
eliminates Minnesota for most of the y- "Operations
data
including locations, direction, rate of travel, dates, times, and
operational stability remain
the
property of the manufacturer or subcontractor and can be given, sold,
or transfered
to third parties (including, but not limited to, other vehicles) at the
manufacturer's discretion without prior
notification to the Operator or vehicle owner." What
the- And
here's the insurance waiver to sign.
Actually my insurance company has already said that for an extra
premium they will insure just about anything until the reality
becomes too expensive (like flooding) at which time they will send
notices saying, "You
know that thing we used to cover? Not any more." Most
insurance companies and gambling establishments have the same floating
rules. They'll do it until it'll cost them.
Insurance companies aren't worried about self-driving cars. But
self-driving cars could change the whole insurance racket. Annually,
the
United States has 11
million traffic accidents and 33,000
traffic fatalities (368 in Minnesota
in 2011) and the numbers have been dropping steadily
since the 1960s. Self-driving cars could stop states from having to
mandate car insurance.
Here's some of the players: states, companies and schools.
The
States
Nevada
was first in line
because, well, it's Nevada -- home of gambling and the Yucca Flat
atomic bomb test range (plus more modern missiles). The Nevada
law, from June 16, 2011, requires the Department of
Motor Vehicles:
...To
adopt regulations authorizing the operation of autonomous vehicles on
highways within the State of Nevada. Section 8 defines an
“autonomous vehicle” to mean a motor vehicle that
uses
artificial intelligence, sensors and global positioning system
coordinates to drive itself without the active intervention of a human
operator. Section 2 of this bill requires the Department, by
regulation, to establish a driver’s license endorsement for
the
operation of an autonomous vehicle on the highways of this
State. “Artificial intelligence” means the
use of
computers and related equipment to enable a machine to duplicate or
mimic the behavior of human beings. “Autonomous
vehicle” means a motor vehicle that uses artificial
intelligence,
sensors and global positioning system coordinates to drive itself
without the active intervention of a human
operator. “Sensors” includes, without
limitation,
cameras, lasers and radar...
(The Nevada
autonomous vehicle license.)
Florida followed
Nevada with the passage of CS/HB
1207 - Vehicles with Autonomous Technology on April 13, 2012.
The term "autonomous
technology"
means technology installed on a motor vehicle that has the capability
to drive the vehicle on which the technology is installed without the
active control or monitoring by a human operator. The term excludes a
motor vehicle enabled with active safety systems or driver assistance
systems, including, without limitation, a system to provide electronic
blind spot assistance, crash avoidance, emergency braking, parking
assistance, adaptive cruise control, lane keep assistance, lane
departure warning, or traffic jam and queuing assistant, unless any
such system alone or in combination with other systems enables the
vehicle on which the technology is installed to drive without the
active control or monitoring by a human operator... Prior to the start
of testing in this state, the entity performing the testing must submit
to the Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles an instrument of
insurance, surety bond, or proof of self-insurance acceptable to the
department in the amount of $5 million...
California
followed Nevada and Florida with the passage of Senate
Bill 1298, signed into law on September 25, 2012.
The autonomous vehicle
is being
operated on roads in this state solely by employees, contractors, or
other persons designated by the manufacturer of the autonomous
technology for testing purposes. For testing purposes, a human operator
shall be present in the autonomous vehicle such that he or she has the
ability to monitor the vehicle's performance and intervene, if
necessary, unless the vehicle is being tested or demonstrated on a
closed course. Prior to the start of testing in this state, the entity
performing the testing must obtain an instrument of insurance, surety
bond, or proof of self-insurance in the amount of five million dollars
($5,000,000)... The manufacturer of the autonomous technology certifies
all of the following: The autonomous vehicle has a mechanism to engage
and disengage the autonomous technology that is easily accessible to
the operator. The autonomous vehicle has a visual indicator inside the
cabin to indicate when the autonomous technology is engaged. The
autonomous vehicle has a system to safely alert the operator if an
autonomous technology failure is detected while the autonomous
technology is engaged, and when an alert is given, the system shall do
either of the following: Require the operator to take control
of
the autonomous vehicle. If the operator is unable to take control of
the autonomous vehicle, be equipped with technology capable of moving
the autonomous vehicle safely out of traffic and to a complete stop...
Michigan Senate
Bill 169
(2013, not passed) falls a bit short of California law, which requires
the operator be present in the vehicle. In Michigan, the operator just
has to push a button... drone like: A
person is considered to be the operator of an automated vehicle
operating in automatic mode when the person causes the automated
vehicle's automated technology to engage, regardless of whether the
person is physically present in that vehicle while it is operating in
automatic mode...
Texas has House
Bill 2932 (2013, not passed)
which follows Michigan, removing the operator from the vehicle: The
operator of an autonomous motor vehicle operating with the use of
autonomous technology is the person who causes the vehicle's autonomous
technology to engage, regardless of whether the person is physically in
the autonomous motor vehicle while the vehicle is operating.
Minnesota
has House
File 1580 (2013,
not passed) authorizing
research into autonomous vehicle legislation (see below).
The
Companies & Schools
▲
Audi - Toyota - Piloted
Driving System available in the A8 (2016)
▲ BMW and Continental
- Vision
Zero - Accident Free Mobility (2020)
▲ GM Cadillac
- Super
Cruise (mid-decade)
▲ Google Drive
- testing
since 2009 (2016-2018) - Joann
Muller from Forbes took a ride this week
▲ Hitachi
- ROPITS
(Robot for Personal Intelligent Transport System)
▲ Lexus - Toyota
- Integrated
Safety Concept - Intelligent Transportation System (ITS)
▲ Mercedes-Benz
- Steering
Assist System available in the S Class (2014)
▲ VisLab Italy
- Intercontinental Autonomous
Challenge (Italy to China 2010)
▲ Volkswagen
- Temporary Auto Pilot - HAVEit
(Highly Automated Vehicles for Intelligent Transport)
▲▲ Carnegie Mellon
University - Boss
(won DARPA 2007)
▲▲ MIT
- Department
of Mechanical Engineering & U.S. Army - Talos (4th
place, DARPA 2007)
▲▲ Stanford University
- Junior
(2nd place, DARPA 2007), Stanley
(won DARPA 2005)
▲▲ Virginia Tech
- Odin
(3rd place, DARPA 2007)
Music Associations: The Cars -
Drive & The Beatles - Drive My Car
Novel Association: Hopes
and Dreams - Stuck on AutoDrive (Buy
It)
Minnesota
Drives Toward AutoDrive
March 20, 2013
You probably don't have to be told that Hopes
and Dreams: Stuck on AutoDrive is a novel about inventing the
self-driving car in Minnesota.
Well, the Minnesota Legislature has taken a first step toward that
reality through House
File 1580, "a bill for an act relating to transportation." Minnesota
Representative Tim Mahoney has introduced the bill to have Transportation
Commissioner Charles A. Zelle develop a proposal for
legislation governing the regulation of autonomous vehicles.
Wow, here we go!
Music Associations: The Cars -
Drive & The Beatles - Drive My Car
Novel Association: Hopes
and Dreams - Stuck on AutoDrive (Buy
It)
My previous posts about Google Drive (December
2011) and Toyota ITS (January
2013).
Tibet Quiz
March 19, 2013
Here are the answers to the Tibet
quiz.
